The NBA’s extension rules are changing the game, but they may not be enough to keep Jaren Jackson Jr. in Memphis. With a four-year, $104.7 million deal signed in 2021, Jackson now finds himself in the spotlight as his contract winds down. The Grizzlies frontloaded the deal, paying him nearly $29 million in the first year. However, as time passes, his earnings are shrinking, leaving him as one of the most underpaid players for his talent. Next year, he’ll earn just $23.4 million, and now the real question is: Will Jackson Jr. reject a nine-figure deal and test the waters of free agency?
The NBA’s Broken System: Will Jackson Jr. Reject a Nine-Figure Deal?
With the NBA’s new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) allowing teams to offer 140% of a player’s previous salary in extensions, it’s clear the league is trying to retain its stars. But is it enough for Jackson? Memphis can only offer him a three-year deal worth $106.2 million right now, a figure far below what he could command on the open market. Jackson might be able to secure a contract exceeding $200 million if he chooses to test free agency in 2026. The Grizzlies can add another year to the offer next summer, raising the total value to $146.8 million. But does that really compare to the supermax potential that looms in his future?
The NBA’s TV contracts are about to balloon the salary cap, potentially pushing it to $170 million by 2026. If that happens, Jackson could land a jaw-dropping five-year deal worth nearly $300 million with Memphis—or sign a four-year contract with another team for around $220 million. The difference is staggering, and it’s enough to make Jackson consider walking away from the Grizzlies.
However, the CBA’s luxury tax penalties mean that teams are more cautious with their wallets. Just look at Paul George, Klay Thompson, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who all jumped ship this past offseason. But Jackson is different. He’s only 25 and is one of the league’s top defenders, even winning Defensive Player of the Year in 2023. His combination of shot-blocking and three-point shooting makes him a rare two-way talent that will be highly coveted if he hits free agency.
The upcoming 2024-25 season could be the deciding factor. If Jackson makes another All-NBA team or repeats as Defensive Player of the Year, he’ll qualify for a supermax deal. That would push his earnings potential even further, possibly exceeding $345 million over five years. But even if he doesn’t, Jackson will have the upper hand in negotiations.
While it seems unlikely that he’ll sign an extension in the next few days, all eyes will be on Jackson next summer. Will he lock in a massive payday with Memphis, or will he gamble on free agency in 2026 to chase an even bigger paycheck? As the saying goes, “The early bird catches the worm”—but sometimes, waiting a little longer can bring a much bigger prize.
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