Nikola Topic: The Future Primary Initiator Guard in the 2024 NBA Draft

In the ever-evolving landscape of the NBA, the significance of a primary initiator guard remains undiminished. These players, capable of consistently creating advantages, forcing defensive rotations, and capitalizing through scoring or playmaking, are indispensable. Among the 2024 NBA Draft prospects, Nikola Topic stands out as a premier candidate for this critical role.

Before transitioning to the Euroleague and dealing with subsequent injuries, Topic showcased his immense potential over 13 games with Mega Bemax in the Adriatic League. At just 18 years old, he posted impressive averages of 18.6 points and 6.9 assists per game, maintaining an elite 62.9% true shooting percentage. Acting as the offensive linchpin for his team, Topic’s performance against seasoned professionals was nothing short of remarkable.

Topic’s game is characterized by his exceptional driving ability. His explosive first step and burst allow him to penetrate defenses with ease, making him a constant threat in the paint. Averaging 7.1 layup attempts per game in the Adriatic League, Topic thrives on generating paint touches, which remain one of the most valuable skills for a guard. His finishing prowess is highlighted by a stellar 67.8% conversion rate on half-court layups, a figure superior to those posted by Ja Morant, Luka Doncic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Steph Curry in their draft years.

Despite his proficiency near the rim, Topic’s game is not without its limitations. His lack of vertical athleticism is evident, as he did not record a single dunk throughout the season. This raises concerns about his ability to translate his finishing ability against more athletic NBA defenders. However, his elite touch, body control, and balance suggest that he can adapt and maintain his finishing effectiveness at the professional level.

Topic’s passing ability is another significant asset. He operates the pick-and-roll at an NBA level, as evidenced by his 34.4% assist rate and a 2.21 assist-to-turnover ratio. His ability to break down defenses and create opportunities for his teammates is notable, with 60.6% of his assists leading to two-point shots, underscoring his interior passing strength.

However, Topic’s vision is not exceptional. While he is a high-volume passer, he occasionally misses higher-level reads in tight NBA-level windows, especially under pressure. This limits his potential to join the NBA’s elite passers, but given his driving excellence, he doesn’t necessarily need elite vision to distribute the ball effectively.

Scoring outside the paint, particularly from three-point range, is the swing skill that will determine Topic’s offensive ceiling. His current three-point shooting percentage of 30.6% is subpar, making it easy for defenses to sag off and bait him into taking jumpers. For Topic to excel as a primary initiator in the NBA, improving his shooting is essential.

Despite his poor percentages, Topic’s shooting indicators are promising. His 87.8% free throw percentage is a strong predictor of future shooting development. Interestingly, he shoots more efficiently on off-the-dribble threes (33.3%) than catch-and-shoot attempts (27.3%). Developing a reliable pull-up three-pointer will be crucial for punishing defenses that collapse on his drives.

Defensively, Topic has struggled significantly. Despite his height advantage for a point guard, his lack of size and force often led to him being overpowered by bigger and stronger opponents. Improving his strength and agility is imperative for him to become a viable defender at the NBA level. Like many young, high-usage initiators, Topic’s defensive struggles are partly due to effort and focus, which can improve over time.

Injuries have also been a concern. Multiple right knee injuries over the past year have affected his performance and raised questions about his long-term durability. Topic recently returned to action but re-injured his knee, significantly impacting his burst and ability to generate rim pressure. NBA teams must be confident in his medical outlook to consider him a top-three pick.

Nikola Topic is a complex prospect with both high upside and notable risks. His elite driving and finishing skills, coupled with strong passing ability, make him an intriguing primary initiator guard. However, his shooting inconsistency, defensive struggles, and injury history pose significant challenges.

Despite these concerns, Topic’s potential to develop into a star player should not be overlooked. He possesses a genuine star ceiling, which is rare in an otherwise starless draft class. Teams like Washington and San Antonio, in need of a primary initiator guard, should consider taking a chance on Topic, provided they have a solid development plan in place.