NBA Defensive Player of the Year odds: Exploring Evan Mobley and Nic Claxton as Top Preseason Contenders
Could we be on the brink of a new dynasty in the making? Historical patterns seem to suggest so. Jaren Jackson Jr., a mere 24-year-old, recently secured his first Defensive Player of the Year award due to a stellar season focused on protecting the rim. When a new dominant rim protector emerges, a slew of accolades often follows.
Consider Dikembe Mutombo, who clinched his first Defensive Player of the Year award in 1995 and amassed four more by 2001. Ben Wallace claimed the title in 2002 and racked up four trophies of his own by 2006. It wasn’t until 2012 that Dwight Howard wrested the title from him. Then, Rudy Gobert took three out of four awards between 2018 and 2021, establishing this as the “dynasty award.” When a rising star grabs it, they tend to hold onto it. This trend largely governs the Defensive Player of the Year award, though other factors also come into play.
Primarily, this award tends to favor big men. However, there’s the occasional exception, occurring once or twice in a decade. Michael Jordan snagged the honor in 1988, and the next perimeter player to do so was Gary Payton in 1996. Eight years later, Ron Artest captured the 2004 trophy. After an 11-year gap, Kawhi Leonard secured two awards, followed by Marcus Smart six years later in 2022. History suggests that in 2024, voters will still lean toward big men.
The quality of a player’s team’s defense plays a crucial role in their candidacy. Since 2008, every winner has hailed from a team with a top-five defense. The top three finishers from the previous season also represented top-four defenses. Realistically, a player on a team that finishes outside the top seven or eight defensively isn’t likely to be a contender. If you lack trust in a team’s defensive prowess, it’s wise not to place your bet on one of their players.
Throughout history, this award has been relatively lenient regarding missed games and low-minute totals. Leonard secured the honor in one of his Defensive Player of the Year seasons, playing just 64 games. Gobert’s award-winning season saw him take the floor for only 56 games. Dennis Rodman and Michael Cooper have won the award while playing less than 30 minutes per game. The newly instituted 65-game minimum for major awards might slightly temper this trend, but the award isn’t for the Most Valuable Defender—it’s the Defensive Player of the Year, and greatness often prevails over availability.
So, is Jaren Jackson Jr. poised to be the next dynasty winner? Or is there another contender worthy of your bet? Here, Sam Quinn and Ameer Tyree highlight their top picks for Defensive Player of the Year.
All odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook.
The Favorites These players have odds no greater than +1000.
Quinn: Let’s begin by discussing the reigning champion. Jaren Jackson Jr. (+500) doesn’t top my list of best bets for several reasons. The primary concern is the newly established 65-game minimum for awards consideration. Jackson has only played five NBA seasons, and even if you adjust for 82-game schedules in the two shortened COVID seasons, he would have been eligible for this award in just one season. He’s also known for playing limited minutes, averaging just 28.4 minutes per game last season. While he’s proven that he can win under these conditions, these factors work against him compared to other candidates. Coupled with his propensity for fouling and rebounding struggles, there are just too many reasons to explore other options.
Evan Mobley (+650) is the second favorite at most sportsbooks, and it’s for good reason. He played an additional six minutes per game compared to Jackson last season and met the 65-game threshold in both of his NBA seasons. Mobley doesn’t share Jackson’s major on-court weaknesses related to fouls and rebounding. While he may not match Jackson’s prowess as a rim protector, he is far more versatile on the perimeter. Mobley led the NBA’s top-ranked defense last year and had them at fifth in his rookie season. His presence ensures a solid foundation of team defensive competence, positioning him as a strong candidate for this award.
And then there’s Bam Adebayo (+1000), who is perhaps the beneficiary of the Damian Lillard trade saga in Miami. While Adebayo would have undoubtedly preferred having Lillard on his team, his chances of getting Miami back into the top five on defense are considerably higher without the star point guard. The addition of Josh Richardson, a defensive upgrade over Max Strus, enhances Miami’s defensive prospects. In five of Adebayo’s six seasons, the Heat finished in the top 10 defensively. Like Mobley, he may not match Jackson’s impressive shot-blocking statistics, but he compensates by excelling in pick-and-roll defense and covering ground as one of the league’s most versatile defenders.
Tyree: My top choice among the favorites is Evan Mobley. Jackson’s fellow All-Defensive First Team forward finished third in last season’s DPOY voting and hasn’t added a former DPOY winner to his squad during the offseason. With Ja Morant serving a lengthy 25-game suspension to start the 2023-24 season, it remains unclear how much more offensive responsibility Jackson will take on and whether he can stay healthy.
Despite my concerns about Jackson’s health, I can’t help but be intrigued by Anthony Davis at +1000. The injury-prone Lakers big man struggled to stay on the court last season, but his defensive numbers were impressive. Only Jackson averaged more combined steals and blocks per game last season, and Davis continued to dominate defensively during the playoffs, leading all players with 50 blocks. Without Davis, the Lakers had a dismal team defensive rating of 119.2 last season, second worst in the league. With Davis on the court, their defensive rating improved significantly to 112.4.
Another player with the potential to make a comeback in the race is Giannis Antetokounmpo (+1000). He won the DPOY award the year before Jrue Holiday arrived in Milwaukee, and now the Bucks have acquired Damian Lillard, who is known for his defensive limitations. While Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez will help share the defensive load, Antetokounmpo could reclaim his status as the defensive anchor for a Milwaukee team that has the basketball world’s attention. He had the league’s best individual defensive rating (107.7) last season.
The Middle of the Pack Players listed here have odds between +1001 and +2500.
Quinn: If you’re seeking a candidate with impressive counting statistics outside of Jackson, Nic Claxton (+1500) is a name to consider. He averaged 2.5 blocks per game last season, second only to Jackson, while also accumulating as many steals (65 each) and significantly more deflections (173 to 124) and defensive rebounds (518 to 426). He plays for a team that might struggle on offense but boasts two recent All-Defensive selections in Ben Simmons and Mikal Bridges, along with another solid wing defender in Dorian Finney-Smith. This could very well be the league’s
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