As Giannis Antetokounmpo rumors swirl, it’s becoming clear that the NBA is no longer built for one-team stars
As the whirlwind of Giannis Antetokounmpo trade speculations intensifies, it’s increasingly evident that the NBA landscape no longer caters to single-team superstar legacies.
The recent buzz surrounding Giannis Antetokounmpo is hard to miss. With eligibility for a contract extension as of September 22, it’s become apparent that he won’t be signing an extension with the Milwaukee Bucks this offseason. He aspires to compete for championships, and he’s keen on ensuring the Bucks can provide the necessary support to make that happen. If you’ve been somewhat detached from the news lately, don’t worry; the narrative today is strikingly similar to what it was in 2020.
Back then, Giannis Antetokounmpo had one less championship ring, but his sentiment remained much the same. He was poised to become one of the most highly anticipated free agents in NBA history in 2021, yet his preference was to remain with the Bucks as long as they furnished him with the right supporting cast. The Bucks eventually did so, executing a trade involving three first-round picks and two first-round swaps to acquire Jrue Holiday, which temporarily appeased Antetokounmpo.
However, that time seems to have passed, and Antetokounmpo has valid concerns about committing the prime years of his career to an aging Bucks roster. Holiday, at 33, is on an expiring contract and has hinted at retirement. Starting center Brook Lopez, at 35, underwent back surgery during the 2021-22 season. Khris Middleton, the youngest among the Bucks’ key players, is 32 and coming off a season in which he played only 33 games.
This supporting cast has secured a championship for Antetokounmpo and is undoubtedly capable of doing it again. However, their effectiveness is on the wane. In contrast, the draft picks traded for Holiday have yet to fully materialize, leaving the Bucks owing two first-round picks and two swaps due to the Holiday trade. Consequently, it’s reasonable to assume that they might not have the assets needed to replicate a move similar to the Holiday trade. Without such moves, the Bucks will likely struggle to maintain a championship contender around Antetokounmpo for the remainder of his prime.
This dilemma underscores the paradox of modern roster construction. Teams are compelled to keep their star players content, yet, ironically, doing so may hinder their ability to keep those stars satisfied in the long run. This is the era of NBA “all-in” strategies, and teams are realizing that they only have one opportunity to go all-in.
The Philadelphia 76ers are in a similar predicament as Joel Embiid trade rumors swirl, but they’ve exhausted their draft assets to acquire James Harden and offload Al Horford. The Dallas Mavericks made their “all-in” move by trading for Kristaps Porzingis, and the resultant asset depletion forced them to make a risky acquisition like Kyrie Irving. Even if Philadelphia or Dallas were to win a championship with their current rosters, they’d have to grapple with the same age-related issues that the Bucks currently face. Irving is seven years older than Luka Doncic, and Harden is five years older than Embiid. These partnerships are not designed for long-term success.
Opting not to make an all-in move is an alternative, but the Portland Trail Blazers’ experience illustrates the difficulties in doing so. Damian Lillard spent the prime of his career watching other superstar players join forces, sidelining him in the latter stages of the playoffs. While traditionally constructed rosters can compete with a dose of extraordinary luck, the reality is that super teams tend to dominate. In the all-in era, the common belief is that a team must either build a super team or witness its best player leave for one.
However, as this era unfolds, its logical culmination appears to be a combination of both scenarios. A team builds a super team and then witnesses its best player leave for another super team when the first one runs its course. This transition is now happening with players like Antetokounmpo, Embiid, and Doncic. It won’t be long before it affects the next wave of emerging stars. Consider the challenge facing the Minnesota Timberwolves in building around Anthony Edwards, especially since the Utah Jazz own their draft picks.
There are exceptions at both ends of the age spectrum, but they aren’t easily replicable. Stephen Curry represents a vanishing archetype, akin to Tim Duncan, Kobe Bryant, and Dirk Nowitzki. What facilitated his journey into that elite group was the simultaneous drafting and development of two other Hall of Famers. The Golden State Warriors never needed to go all-in for players like Klay Thompson or Draymond Green because they had them in place. However, as the Kevin Durant era with the Oklahoma City Thunder demonstrated, drafting three superstars doesn’t guarantee a dynasty. Sustaining it is a different challenge. Curry’s status as a one-team superstar was ensured through astute roster management and the decision to replace Mark Jackson with Steve Kerr. Without these factors, he might not have remained with the Warriors.
Certain teams, such as the San Antonio Spurs, seem to have anticipated this challenge and taken proactive measures to address it. They’ve acquired a wealth of draft picks by trading veterans like Dejounte Murray and Derrick White. Additionally, they’ve accumulated pick swaps from various teams across different years, often with fewer protections than outright picks. Currently, San Antonio holds swaps from the Hawks (2026), Celtics (2028), and Mavericks (2030), with Boston’s pick being the only one protected, and only if it lands as the top overall pick.
These swaps serve as potential safety nets for the Spurs. They are strategically gathering low-probability, high-reward assets that will mature just as Victor Wembanyama reaches his prime. The objective is to avoid the need to go all-in for an older player and instead infuse the organization with high-potential younger talent organically. San Antonio executed this approach to perfection during the Tim Duncan era, with Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, and eventually Kawhi Leonard ensuring Duncan’s contention for his entire career.
Teams like the Oklahoma City Thunder, New Orleans Pelicans, and Utah Jazz find themselves in similar positions. What ties these teams together is that their rebuilds started by trading multiple All-Stars. This not only gave them a substantial head start on organic rebuilding but also allowed them to accumulate sufficient draft capital to go all-in whenever needed. A typical NBA team usually has four tradable first-round picks at any given time, but the Thunder currently possess a remarkable 12.
Going all-in before reverting to an all-in mindset might be the next phase of the superstar arms race. However, this strategy does little to address the immediate challenges facing teams like the Bucks. Even if Milwaukee could convert a few of their key veterans into valuable assets for future transactions, it would be an uphill battle to keep Giannis Antetokounmpo content long enough to see that plan to fruition. Ultimately, this might be their strategy for securing their post-Antetokounmpo future, not addressing the present challenges presented by Giannis.
The current situation may not last long, and Antetokounmpo’s prime may conclude soon. The Bucks are living on borrowed time, as are the 76ers and Mavericks. This reality extends to nearly every team with a prime superstar, and the clock no longer stops with a blockbuster trade or even a championship victory. Keeping players in the league, akin to Curry or Duncan, means maintaining a consistently winning track record. Yet, sustaining such a level of success requires replenishing talent as quickly as it declines. Given the exorbitant costs involved, this is no longer a sustainable strategy. It might happen in a year, three years, or five, but the outcome is that most superstars of this generation will eventually change teams. The NBA’s landscape is no longer conducive to single-team superstar careers, akin to the likes of Kobe Bryant or Dirk Nowitzki.
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