Team USA has already secured its place in the knockout stage of the 2024 Paris Olympics after two commanding victories in group play. As they gear up for their final group stage match against Puerto Rico on Saturday, the stakes are not about survival but positioning. A win would ensure an undefeated 3-0 record for USA vs. Puerto Rico, potentially granting them the No. 1 seed and a favorable path in the quarterfinals, depending on their point differential.
Should Team USA falter and lose, their journey to gold would become significantly more challenging, with the top seed slipping away to Canada or Germany, both of whom also finished group play undefeated. However, the chances of an upset seem slim, especially given Puerto Rico’s struggles so far in the tournament.
Best Bets for Team USA vs. Puerto Rico
Point Spread: Team USA -34.5
Picking against such a massive 34.5-point spread is never easy, but the circumstances surrounding this match make it a bit clearer. Team USA is motivated to secure the No. 1 seed, and with a current point differential of +43, they are just behind Germany’s +47. Canada, with a +20 differential, poses less of a threat in this aspect. Even a modest win would likely secure the top seed for the Americans, but the gap in talent between these two teams suggests that a blowout is more probable than not. Puerto Rico, after all, just suffered a 41-point loss to Serbia and was also beaten by South Sudan. Given these factors, it seems likely that Team USA will cover the spread and maintain their momentum heading into the knockout stage. The Pick: Team USA -34.5
Point Total: Under 189.5
When betting on the point total, it’s important to consider the potential output from both teams. While Team USA is expected to cruise to around 100 points, Puerto Rico’s offensive struggles cast doubt on their ability to contribute enough to push the total over 189.5 points. They only managed 66 points against Serbia, and with Jose Alvarado playing through an ankle injury, their offensive outlook seems bleak. The Pick: Under 189.5
Player Prop: Jose Alvarado Under 15.5 Points
Jose Alvarado showed his skill against South Sudan, scoring 26 points, but an ankle injury hampered his performance against Serbia, where he scored just two points on 1-of-6 shooting. Facing a well-prepared Team USA defense, and possibly Jrue Holiday, who is questionable for the game, Alvarado is unlikely to have a significant impact. Given his injury and the level of competition, it’s a safe bet to expect him to score under 15.5 points. The Pick: Alvarado Under 15.5 Points
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